RNA - The following news headlines are tell-tale signs:
Al-Nusra Ends Presence at Lebanon-Syria Bordering Heights
Hezbollah Forces Patrol Syria-Lebanon Border Region
10,000 Militants, Families Leave Arsal Heights at Lebanon-Syria Border
Syrian Army, Kurds Set Up Joint Operations Room for Battle in Deir Ezzur
Syrian Troops Tighten Noose on ISIL's Last Bastion in Eastern Homs
Damascus Museum Comes Back to Life as Eastern Ghouta Ceasefire Ensues
1. This is the first rule of thumb to keep in mind. If the foreign-backed terrorists are no longer able to hold ground, are forced to end their presence at borders, or desperate to sign ceasefire agreements with the Syrian government, it’s time to conclude that they are in their last legs. This is particularly true if they are getting weak enough that they wouldn’t be able to get all the support they need from patrons, all while hanging on only in small rural cities and the rugged northern countryside.
2. It’s more than ceasefire and retreat. The Trump administration has already announced that it is no longer willing to arm the “moderate” terrorists in Syria. Lack of US support is the trigger for many other regional patrons to follow. Unfortunately, the US is doing it after turning Syria into a failed state and occupying its territory - regardless of international criticism. It may be possible to build some military bases there, even if it is, it may not make legal sense if the bases themselves are going to prolong the insecurity after ISIL and Al-Qaeda are fully defeated.
3. No war can last forever. The people of Syria are paying for America’s permanent War on Terror, so they want to use all the available resources to make sure it will not continue in their country. If terrorists are laying down their arms, ending presence at border regions, or signing ceasefire agreements, that’s because their campaign to regime change Syria didn’t work, it’s time to replace it.
4. ISIL and Al-Qaeda are clearly living through their last days as territorial entities, but their defeat may not bring peace to eastern Syria any time soon. If the Pentagon regime continues to build military bases for its occupying troops there, it means disaster for the long-term integrity of the country and in fact the entire region. It will be alternately filled with rage and stark-raving fear even for neighboring Turkey. The international community views these illegal bases as prelude for future violent confrontation, with the US government appearing to have decided that ratcheting up tensions with Syria and its ally Iran would shore up its support among Arab cronies.
5. Continuing to envision the occupation of Syria both as a ticket for ongoing increases in military spending and a convenient way to coax regional allies into complicated alliances, the Pentagon regime is desperately interested in building its war games across broad global conflicts, specially in the Middle-East to impose its hegemonic policies in the region. And that’s no accident. Brig. Gen. John Healy, who coordinates exercises in Europe, says the US wants to prepare for more complex wars with broader goals.
At any rate, the Syrian government and a group of self-described “moderate” rebels have already agreed to a ceasefire in the area just north of the key city of Homs, allowing for the implementation of the third of four planned safe zones meant to keep combatants separated. Iran and Russia have also done this in the two southernmost safe zones, and neither case has seen substantial incidents of fighting since, leading to hope that the safe zone idea, which was long rejected by Washington, may finally provide some level of calm for the entire nation.
So too it looks to be the case with the Syrian government and its enemies. The former doesn’t want to touch confrontation. The latter doesn’t like to be cut from political equations in post-ISIL Syria. And most of the Syrian people are clamoring to see their country free from war, terror and occupation.
They rightly worry about a mismatch between American military occupation and national reconciliation. America’s expansive intervention is bad news. The people of Syria and all the warring factions are better off declaring they don’t want to see American occupying forces “protecting” them, much less fighting terrorists on their behalf, engaging in seemingly worthless nation building, and treating the slightest instability as a summons to bomb.
War-party Washington must begin to rethink priorities too, as America’s permanent occupation of Syria becomes more precarious. Per usual, numerous think-tanks and human rights organizations offer the grimmest reading in Washington. The usual Republican suspects continue to make the same unrealistic arguments for military occupation detached from International Law. But reality has an ugly tendency to assert itself at the most inconvenient time.
The end of ISIL and Al-Qaeda is now in sight, and different factions would be better off if they start preparing for the likely dialog with the Syrian government. That means adopting a more cautious, realistic and even humble policy.
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