RNA - The man who once proclaimed a policy of “zero problems with neighbours,” is now at adds with his neighbours, his allies, and his own military commanders. On Saturday, July 16, Turkish military commanders launched a coup to overthrow him but failed. Fethullah Gülen, the reclusive cleric blamed by Erdogan for the failed coup, has said the uprising could have been “staged” by the government to crack down on dissent and purge the military.
Whatever it is, there are several variables here - regardless of how this bloody episode ends. One thing is certain though; it pushes Turkey toward the abyss of instability and terror – just like in Europe:
1-Turkish ambitions to project power and affect regime change in Syria - in alliance with terror groups – have now gone down the drain. The government is at war with its own military and the army is at war with itself. People stood their ground against the coup makers not because of Erdogan, but because of democracy and the fact that they don’t want Turkey to become another Syria. The problem is that Turkey doesn’t have a real leader who can bring different sides of a divided society together.
-Under intense pressure from the international civil society and because of the fact that the alliance of Iran, Syria, Russia and Hezbollah is winning the war, Turkey has been forced to back away from its policy of aiding and abetting terror groups in Syria. This has led ISIL to consider Turkey a traitorous new enemy. That is why it is launching terror attacks on Turkish soil. This escalation is too much for some military officers, and that’s another reason why they tried to bring down Erdogan’s house of cards.
-Over the past few years, Erdogan has systematically repressed civil society and the press. His closest associates, including family members, have been implicated in large-scale corruption and arms deals with terror groups. Military officers swallowed all of that because neither repression nor corruption is new in Turkey. It was the spectacular failure of Erdogan’s foreign policy in Syria that became the breaking point.
-Erdogan has declared the Kurds his greatest enemy. Instead of focusing on ISIL, he has ordered the army to bomb Kurdish targets in Syria. The Obama administration which arms the Kurdish fighters against ISIL doesn’t like this policy. It’s the same sentiment among some military officers.
-The putting down of the military coup is not a momentary matter and some parts of the Turkish army say they will never remain obedient to their president. The coup, the regime change fantasies, the regional designs, and the related breakdown of frontiers and state-belief – with a helping hand from Team Erdogan - have inflicted such wounds across Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries in the Middle East. Instability, coup and terror attacks are now contagious in the region, especially among those who once fancied regime change in Syria.
The warning signs are there for all to see. Those who have shamelessly funnelled missiles, guns and cash to “moderate” terror groups in Syria and Iraq, will similarly see their own cities torn apart with massive bombs, corrupt armies, officials and intelligence service cooperating with “enemies” – including Al-Qaeda and ISIL. Seen in its proper context, if they don’t change course now, they will only have themselves to blame when their country becomes another Syria.
Hence, Erdogan is now at a vital juncture. Whoever was behind this coup, the Turkish president has now been given probably a free hand to pressure his domestic opponents even more than before, although he should remember that the coup started to falter due to the public turnout in Istanbul and not the considerably smaller support that he received in the capital. The wide-scale arrests in the army - as the most powerful power player on Turkey's political scene - will give him even a better and more powerful position at home. But, when it comes to the realm of foreign policy, Erdogan is forced to think more deeply because of the same weakened army and given the explicit and implicit support that a number of states, like Saudi Arabia, voiced for the coup plotters. Which means that he has to move much faster and much stronger on the shifted path of foreign policy that he had started just one week before the coup: giving up dreams of leading a Brotherhood Alliance - or his New Othoman Empire - and rebuilding ties with Iran, Russia and their allies on the scene of regional politics.
At times ambitions make you an adventurist because they push you into illusions, but smart leaders are wise enough to stand on the winning side.
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