RNA - Statements from armchair warriors at the Pentagon confirm that a Syrian Kurdish and Arab force backed by US air strikes has launched an offensive against the de facto capital. The big idea is to maximise pressure on ISIL when it is already under attack in Mosul in Iraq. If this all seems a little rushed and desperate, it is:
1- One of the great disadvantages of hurry is that it takes such a long time. The east-west advance across the Syrian border to take Raqqa comes despite the fact that Washington and company haven't yet been able to complete the Mosul operation in Iraq.
2- The two-front war takes place on two geographically separate fronts, being executed by two or more separate forces simultaneously or nearly simultaneously, in the hope that ISIL will be forced to split their fighting force to deal with both threats, therefore reducing their odds of success. The problem is, ISIL forces are not stationed only in Raqqa.
3- The Obama administration’s gambit is to prolong the dirty war on Syria on the pretext of fighting the Salafi-jihadist group. That includes delaying the ongoing military operation by the Syrian Army and allies to liberate the city of Aleppo. This way the US doesn't have to complete the Mosul operation before continuing the east-west advance. This is highly unlikely, but they want to schedule victory in Raqqa – before Syria does. President Obama also intended to show the Democrats have a dominant foreign policy in a bid to assist his favorite nominee in the upcoming presidential race Hillary Clinton.
4- US officials know that the days of their “moderate” proxy forces are numbered in Aleppo. They have to station them somewhere else. They want to establish Raqqa as the de facto capital of "moderate" rebels - the very groups now openly allied to Al-Qaeda - under the cover of a US-imposed no-fly zone. This way the US can also establish a permanent military presence in the country – more of the sordid same in other parts of the region.
5- The Mosul operation is expected to last multiple months, and comments from US officials suggest they believe Raqqa will be an even bigger and longer offensive. They would like us to believe that the assault on ISIL in Syria is very much orchestrated by the US and dependent on US-led airstrikes. This is nonsense. The US only decided to intervene when it became clear that the alliance of Iran, Syria, Russia and Hezbollah was winning the war on its proxy goons.
6-The opening of the Raqqa offensive brings with it political complications that may exceed the military difficulties. Turkey does not want Raqqa to fall to a force dominated by the YPG, which is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). It has been fighting a guerrilla warfare against Turkey since 1984. In other words, Turkey won't sit on its hands.
Despite the complexity of the present situation, it is still not that hard to realise that the professional warmongers cannot extinguish the fire in Syria if they themselves are the arsonists. It is hard to look at their actions and still believe the decision to calibrate their tactics is humanitarianism.
The rushed and desperate offensive has nothing to do with dislodging ISIL and everything to do with power play and keeping a military footprint in Syria. The perverse essence of this new gambit is completely based on a cynical calculation meant to prolong the war and protect Washington’s illicit interests. It is no surprise, then, that this will get much uglier - with terrible consequences.
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