Firas Samuri:‎

The new US strategy in Syria is bound to fail

Rasa – In an exclusive report for Rasa News Agency, Firas Samuri, a freelance journalist, ‎‎wrote ‎ about the new American strategy in Syria and its perspectives. The previous one has ‎collapsed and the new has the same future.‎

News ID: 441289

Date: 01 November 2018 - 10:26

RNA – The leading analysts repeatedly stated that the US has failed to overthrow President ‎Bashar al-Asad. Recently, The National Interest reporter and researcher, Doug Bandow, has ‎made sure of it during his trip to Damascus. He claims “at long last, the conflict is winding ‎down. al-Asad has won, and Washington has lost, and America’s approach has been a ‎disastrous failure.’ ‎

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is considering the possibility of changing the current ‎political course that previously hasn’t led to any success. Today a new strategy for the war ‎in Syria is hastily working out. According to Stratfor, an American geopolitical intelligence ‎platform and publisher, the US is focused on the full withdrawal of the Iranian military and ‎their proxies from Syria, as well as on changing the current Syrian government.‎

The ‘war strategy’ particularly highlights the Russian and Iranian approach. However, the ‎United States could hardly be expected to force Moscow and Tehran to leave Syria, as these ‎states are acting officially in fighting terrorism at the invitation of the Syrian President. Due to ‎allies’ support, the Syrian Arab Army is now controlling more than 60% of the territory and is ‎going to liberate Idlib enclave soon as well as the areas occupied by the US and Turkey.‎

It’s worth noting that the US has illegally deployed at least ten military bases in northeastern ‎Syria. These territories are under the Kurdish control and are rich in natural resources such as ‎gas and oil. Moreover, in September 2018, the US forces have started setting up two ‎additional military bases in al-Qamishli region in al-Hasakah governorate. According to the ‎new strategy, Washington intends to preserve its influence in the area by resolving two ‎missions simultaneously. First, it is planned to carry out total control over gas and oil ‎deposits for the American corporations. Second, continue to destabilize the situation until ‎power in the country is changed.‎

Besides, one more US military base is located in al-Tanf not far from the state border with ‎Iraq and Jordan and near the al-Rukban refugee camp. The US SOF trains opposition fighters ‎there. Initially, the Pentagon planned to occupy the whole region of southeastern Syria, but ‎the SAA backed by Iraq had derailed the US plans by connecting western Syria with the ‎Syrian-Iraqi border north to at-Tanf.‎

To sum up, the Pentagon controls about 30% of territories in northeastern and southern ‎Syria. Another 10% of northwestern Syria is under control of the Turkish army and its ‎military formations.‎

By the way, some Middle East experts are sceptical about the new US strategy in Syria. They ‎believe that the US-designed plans will fail as Washington has not been able to overthrow al-‎Asad for years of the conflict. The also suppose that fighting terrorism and a possible risk ‎for their motherland being transformed into another Libya consolidated the Syrian nation ‎most of which trust their leader. After all, people have stopped to believe the information ‎transmitted by al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya.‎

The plan to drive Iran out is also hardly possible. Washington is fairly not ready for the ‎confrontation with Tehran and is likely to limit itself to economic and diplomatic solutions.‎
However, we should not expect the US military would leave Syria. The White House won’t ‎take that step. Otherwise, it could lose the influence in the region and the American ‎corporations would be deprived of income. President Trump is interested in gaining economic ‎benefits of the US oil companies’ presence in northern Syria. Consequently, it is too early to ‎speak about the withdrawal of the US troops. There have been no serious prerequisites.‎

The US will have to leave the country only when al-Asad regains control over Idlib and ‎establishes the dialogue with Kurds. Such a development is possible only in long-term ‎perspective.‎

That is why the current task for the Syrian army is the restoration of peace in Idlib ‎Governorate that is currently run by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Huras al-Din and other radical ‎groups. The government forces have already prepared for the offensive. The large-scale ‎military operation is to begin if the jihadists reject living the buffer zone by the Russian-‎Turkish arrangement.‎

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