US Officials Are Off Beam – Syria Won the War

Rasa - It doesn’t take a mathematician to add a simple sum: With ISIL all but defeated and other US-backed terror proxy forces mostly boiled down to just the Idlib province and a few smaller enclaves, the Syrian government and its allies have effectively won the war.

News ID: 435178

Date: 06 December 2017 - 21:50

RNA - US officials, consequently, are way off the line to claim that President Basher Assad is wholly “not capable of winning” this war, citing massive damage to the national infrastructure, huge casualties the military has suffered, and his dependence on Iranian-Russian-Hezbollah allies.

This baseless claim of “not winning” is likely to be the centerpiece of future US justifications for keeping large numbers of occupying troops in Syria over the express objections of the Syrian government and its allies. But the allied forces of Iran, Syria, Russia and Hezbollah have surely won the war – one way or another:

1- Two years after the start of the war of insurgency, it did look as if President Assad was on his way out. Thousands of Syrian troops were deserting the army out of an abiding sense of fear that they would be killed or captured by the ISIL and US terror proxy forces they were sent to fight. Aleppo, the country’s cultural and economic capital, went from a government-held city to one that was divided and on the frontline. The only thing keeping the government from fall were volunteer forces, Iranian military advisors, and the 4th Armored Division led by President Assad’s younger brother.

2- Six years-plus later, Aleppo is back in government’s control and it is the US-backed terror proxies now at their weakest point in the conflict. Whether the regime changers like it or not, the UN Security Council’s support, Iran’s organization and training of the Syrian armed forces, and Russia’s bombing campaign have put the last nail in the coffin of those who wanted to partition the country in the first place.

3- At the president time, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and their allies are forced to reckon with the hard reality that Bashar al-Assad will continue to be Syria’s elected president. The US-led regime change campaign, partly due to the support of allies, and partly due to President Assad’s tactics, is now a dead letter. The Trump administration has no choice but to figure out a policy that addresses these realities. Whatever that policy turns out to be, Syria will no longer be a fractured, broken, chaotic, and violent country.

4- If the aim of the war was the destruction of the Syrian government, then President Assad has absolutely ensured his survival and in this respect he has prevailed. He has won the war, in the sense that he has not been defeated by the initial ISIL takeover or subsequent fighting against US proxies and pushed them back to the frontiers of total annihilation.

5- The Iranians and Russians seem to be eyeing a long political process with a certain conclusion. In the interim, military jockeying will continue in Syria, especially as the fight against the remnants of ISIL and other terrorist groups nears its conclusion.

6- Israel’s defense minister has acknowledged that the Syrian government is winning the war. He even urged the US to weigh in as Damascus’s Iranian and Hezbollah allies gain ground. Avigdor Lieberman’s comments mark a reversal of fortune for Tel Aviv, which had from the outset of fighting in 2011 until mid-2015 regularly predicted President Assad would lose control of his country and be toppled. In his words, “I see a long international queue lining up to woo Assad, include Western nations, including moderate Sunnis. Suddenly everyone wants to get close to Assad. This is unprecedented. Because Assad is winning, everyone is standing in line.”

So aside from Iran and Russia's long-term policy in Syria, the key determinant in shaping the country will never be the US's position after ISIL's total defeat. Just like in Iraq, the Americans will never be able to solidify their backing for the Kurds, much less give them strength and prolong the fighting to lead to the formation of an independent political entity. The failed Kurdish campaign for secession in Iraq is a wake-up call for those separatists who dream of repeating the same deadly mistake in Syria. Damascus and its allies will have carte blanche to do as they please.

But what a post-war Syria will look like? That President Assad will play an integral role is now widely accepted by the international community, a realization that could facilitate a political solution to formally end the fighting. Then there is the issue of reconstructing the country, with Iran, Russia and China reportedly in line for massive contracts – projected by the World Bank to cost $226 billion. There will be democratic elections too, as people want to get on with their lives.

At this stage, the military map of the Middle East has substantially changed. It will be years before the regime changers could come to their senses, but the Israelis, so used to calling on Washington for help, may have to go back to the Capitol Hill again to clear up the mess they are in.

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